uncle_stan

UFOs are back

Неплохой разбор, под которым я почти подпишусь — в комментарии от ShaunDoesMusic: 

As a computer scientist and long term sceptic, I'm gonna explain why (for now) it's completely fine to be psyched about these videos  

1 - Source) when the first video went up in 2007, it didn't make waves because it was another "for sure definitely not doctored" upload from a randomer with no authority. Now basically nobody disagrees that the videos themselves are real. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and it would normally be safe to assume it had been faked. This case is different because it was confirmed by a government that the footage embarrassed and weakens. Not only is it a result of leaks at a time when leaks are weakening reputations, it also weakens their posture as "the people with the best guns".   

2 - "ruling out" natural phenomena) Consider the Tabby's star "alien megastructure". Science works on precedence. If there is a phenomenon which you know to exist in the universe that could explain something, that theory is almost definitely more likely to be true than one which requires an unobserved theoretical.   There were many theories for what could be causing the dimming of that star, many of which relied on existent phenomena, one of which relied on aliens. It turned out to be a dust cloud.   It is entirely possible that this will turn out to be a natural occurrence too. However that requires more unproven assumptions than the alternatives. it would need to be a natural phenomenon capable of outmaneuvering humanity's best tech, while maintaining a consistent complex geometry (nature tends to like cascades and orbs), capable of staying coherent both at speed and at a stop. If you put merit into the eye-witness reports of these things, they also appear to show intent and an ability to react to the presence of conventional aircraft. That means that if they are  natural, it would be something still completely unknown and alien to us which has somehow managed to go undetected in 12,000 years of human civilisation until now, which would be exciting in and of itself.   

4 - it's probably us)  This is what a lot of people will have seen, referencing secretive navy patents and claims from the USG that other parties have this already - all of which sounds very conspiracy-ey, but there are theoretical designs for craft that would fit this profile exactly. We also know that craft capable of spacetime bubbles and zero-inertia are mathematically possible if not experimentally (yet). There is also the fact that work on high temperature superconductors has been coming along very nicely in recent years, as has our understanding of quantum physics, and that a sufficiently capacitive superconducting system would be able to essentially remove the energy limitations that relegate a lot of technology to the world of scifi overnight. If released to the public it could also crash entire economic sectors. That certain militaries are very into installing high energy weapons right now raises my eyebrow.  If I had to bet, I'd put money on this, but the statistician in me really wants to believe 5  

5 - it really could be aliens)  While as little as 50 years ago, it used to be seen as insane, it's now safe for reasonable people to assume life exists elsewhere in the universe because of 4 important undeniable facts  - 

a - life exists in the universe  - 

b - life can create technological intelligence   - 

c - through the twin magics of evolution and entropy, life tends to spread to fill all available nooks and crannies  - 

d - life can survive in space  

No serious scientist will stake their reputation on claims these things are defiitely alien craft, because it's ended careers and reputations before,  but if intelligent life exists in the universe, given enough time, and forgoing mitigating circumstances (the great filters,) that life would spread throughout the universe, even if only its tech, even if only sublight.   If that tech were to exist, it would have great stealth / movement capability and be able to evade all human detection until we begin to create seriously advanced sensor tech ( like we are now )  People think about our nukes and our computing power with regards to alien interest but forget that while those are ultimately earthbound, our sensors are insanely powerful these days and can reach across the universe. We will soon have the ability to directly image exoplanets, which would require a much larger energy and tech cost to prevent if said civilisations were inclined to stay hidden. So if they were "out there", now would be a logical time for them to take more of a direct interest. That these craft are apparently taking a great interest in SOTA sensor upgrades on navy ships is consistent with that hypothesis, as is our increased ability to detect them now. That said, foreign countries would also take a great interest in sensor upgrades. But then why fly fleets of your super secret spy aircraft around enemy sensors, tipping your hand? If it's the US around their own ships, why confirm their existence in a politically damaging and toothless way?   We don't know aliens exist. We know humans exist and that many countries are working on tech that theoretically could enable this kind of vehicle. Scientifically that means it's almost definitely us. The political evidence is the strongest case for this being intelligent ET life however, and based on what we know it is entirely possible.   So no matter what, this is exciting shit. It could be fake, it could be a systematic error. But based on the evidence available to the general public, "aliens" is absolutely a reasonable theory, although a bit of a stretch unless and until we get more information.

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